Abu-Ghazaleh Tackles the Future Peace and Security Risks at the Amman Model UN Conference

Just as ICTs have played a key role advancing the conduct of war, they also have a role in avoiding, ending and ameliorating conflict and the ramifications of conflicts ? Abu-Ghazaleh

AMMAN -November 25, 2008 , Mr. Talal Abu-Ghazaleh, vice chairman, Board of Directors, United Nations Global Compact and chairman and CEO of Talal Abu-Ghazaleh Organization(TAG-Org) addressed the seventh annual session of the Amman Model United Nations Conference in its closing session held on November 24, 2008.

In his remarks entitled ?Future Peace and Security Risks?, Mr. Abu-Ghazaleh, the vice chair of the United Nations Global Alliance for ICT and Development (GAID), stated that ?The 20th century witnessed two ?World Wars? and countless other major ones, numerous genocides, natural and man-made environmental disasters and existential threats to human civilization; from the Cold War and its geo-political balance of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) to Chernobyl and the Iraq-American wars; the 20th century was a frightening and terrible time for the human race.?

However, he added that ?It is a frightening thought that the 21st century could, while very different, be just as bad if not worse in collateral damage to human societies.?

Nevertheless, Mr. Abu-Ghazaleh, pointed out that there are unique assets available in the 21st century ?One of the most obvious of the assets is technology. Communications and transportation technology have spurred the trend toward globalization, which while it has roots going deep into the past, is in its current incarnation a fundamentally new and modern experience.?

Elaborating on the significance of Technology, Mr. Abu-Ghazaleh, chair, International Chamber of Commerce, Business Action to Support the Information Society (BASIS), wondered ?how history would have played out if bloggers and YouTube video posters had documented the machinery of the Nazi Holocaust back in 1938 or 1939 and the world had been faced with that horror before it was so massively successful; perhaps the European Jews would exist in larger numbers and in Europe and not in Palestine.?

He believes that ?Just as ICTs have played a key role advancing the conduct of war, they also have a role in avoiding, ending and ameliorating conflict and the ramifications of conflicts.?

?Yet, despite all the advances that technology brings, technology itself remains a double-edged sword, and it remains to be seen whether humans will, in the final analysis, be the winners or the losers in man?s race for supremacy over nature,? Abu-Ghazaleh stressed.

Mr. Abu-Ghazaleh, therefore, pointed out ?one of the greatest challenges is that threats to peace and security are interrelated and feed on each other? tackling in details the following key issues: 

• Global Climate Change 
• Peak Petroleum- Energy Insecurity 
• Water Insecurity 
• Population Growth 
• Unemployment/ Social and Political Instability 
• Nuclear Proliferation 
• Biological Instability- Epidemics, Plagues and Killer Viruses 
• Global Economic Instability 
• Economic Inequality

Speaking about the economic inequality, Mr. Abu-Ghazaleh said ?There is an old saying. ?What is the difference between a recession and a depression?? A recession is when your neighbor is unemployed; a depression is when you are unemployed. Something similar holds true for the world. Many of us judge whether things are getting better or worse by our own personal situation. But if we judge by the situation of most of the world it is very bad.?

?As the world?s poor have mightily endeavored to dig themselves out of poverty, they have dug themselves into a huge environmental nightmare. It may well be a nightmare that was begun by the developed countries, but it is a nightmare that will be completed by the world?s poor.?

?The current vulnerabilities to peace and security constitute a ?perfect storm?. It is likely that humanity will survive, but it is questionable that human civilization will survive as we know it today,? he concluded.